It looks like Rudy Giulani is dropping in every poll that matters right now. He is still doing OK in states where the primary is far off, but that will change after the early primary results come in.
Some people think his problem is that he is unacceptable to the social conservatives in the Republican party, because of his stance on abortion and his personal life. That is partly true, but it only explains part of his troubles. If that were his only problem he could still get 30-40% of the vote early on, and a majority once a few candidates have dropped out.
His biggest problem is this: Rudy Giuliani has never governed, or represented, an area containing a cow.
This is huge cultural obstacle to overcome, for a variety of reasons. First of all, when Rudy thinks about guns, he thinks either of being mugged, or of policemen using guns to capture criminals, or perhaps of military activities. Most Americans, especially rural American, when they think of guns, think about hunting. Therefore his opinions about gun control are not only unacceptable to many Republicans, but they are based on alien premises.
The second problem he faces is that rural Americans are necessarily more self-reliant. In a city, your existence depends on a variety of services that are provided for you. There is city water, there are lots of stores and restaurants, and there is public transportation. Also most people have landlords to take care of their apartments.
In contrast to this, rural people and even suburbanites are more self-reliant. We have to take care of our yards and houses, we have to drive to get places, and many of us grow at least some of our own food. While some of us have city water, others have wells that must be maintained. Again, Rudy Giuliani just does not think like we do, and this will hurt him in Iowa, New Hampshire, and beyond.
So when you see Rudy Giuliani, once the front runner, take a big nose dive as soon as the primaries begin, do not be surprised, and don’t just think it is because of social conservatism. There is a huge cultural gap between him and most Republicans.