I understand that the polls have been favoring Obama lately. That might have something to do with his minions’ insistence that Mitt Romney hasn’t paid taxes for 10 years, or that he caused a woman to die from cancer, or that he nominated for VP a man who pushes wheelchair-bound grandmothers of of cliffs. Negative ads work, at least for a while, even if they are totally false. Of course, once you have accused your opponents of murder, tax fraud, and causing cancer, you might run out of shockingly bad things to say by October.
But I think Obama will lose, possibly in a landslide, and here is why.
I know a fellow who is a small businessman, and who hates Ronald Reagan. He also hates George W. Bush, and he voted for Obama in 2008, because he said we needed a huge change. He will be voting for Romney this time around. He hates Obama’s lawless approach to immigration, and he hates the ridiculous requirements that the Obama administration has put on his business. He also doesn’t like incumbents.
I know another fellow who is as far left as I am to the right. He also hates Bush and Reagan, and he was gung ho for Obama in 2008. This year, he is just not enthusiastic about politics at all.
I know another fellow who was thoroughly pro Obama in 2008. He will vote for Obama in 2012, but only because he has no where else to go. He said once that if he were giving Obama a grade, it would be a C-. Perhaps now that the campaign is in full swing, he is getting more enthusiastic, but then again, maybe not.
Anyhow, I have talked politics with a good number of people. I have met McCain supporters who will vote for Romney, with varying levels of enthusiasm. I have met Obama supporters who will vote for him again (with varying degrees of enthusiasm), and Obama 2008 supporters who will be backing Romney in 2012.
I have not met a single person who has said, “You know, I voted against Obama in 2008, but he has actually done a pretty good job, so I expect to vote for him in 2012.” Not a single one.
This tells me that, whatever the polls say right now, they will say something different in November.
Given the number of people that I know, and how many people have changed their mind, or their level of enthusiasm, I have to believe that Obama will get about 48% of the vote this time around, compared to 53% last time around. Those numbers should lead to an Electoral College victory for Romney.